Page 24 - Policy Economic Report - April 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

While the index had shown some recovery in the previous month, with growth of 2.8 per cent in February
2026, the moderation in March highlights the impact of evolving global and domestic conditions. On a
cumulative basis, the ICI grew by 2.6 per cent during April–March 2025–26 (provisional), indicating
modest expansion compared to the previous year.

Sector-wise Performance (March 2026)

• Coal (weight: 10.33%):
o Declined by 4.0% YoY
o Cumulative growth: -0.5%

• Crude Oil (weight: 8.98%):
o Declined by 5.7% YoY
o Cumulative growth: -2.8%

• Natural Gas (weight: 6.88%):
o Increased by 6.4% YoY
o Cumulative growth: -2.8%

• Petroleum Refinery Products (weight: 28.04%):
o Increased marginally by 0.1% YoY
o Cumulative growth: -0.1%

• Fertilizers (weight: 2.63%):
o Declined sharply by 24.6% YoY
o Cumulative growth: -0.1%

• Steel (weight: 17.92%):
o Increased by 2.2% YoY
o Cumulative growth: 9.1%

• Cement (weight: 5.37%):
o Increased by 4.0% YoY
o Cumulative growth: 8.6%

• Electricity (weight: 19.85%):
o Declined by 0.5% YoY
o Cumulative growth: 0.9%

Aggregate Demand

High-frequency indicators of economic activity exhibited mixed performance in March 2026, reflecting
resilience in domestic demand alongside emerging sector-specific moderation. Indicators of goods
movement and consumption remained strong, with e-way bills continuing to record double-digit growth,
supported in part by GST rate rationalization. GST collections also witnessed a surge, pointing to sustained
consumption demand as well as improved tax compliance.

Fuel consumption trends presented a nuanced picture. Petrol and diesel consumption registered an
uptick, partly driven by precautionary buying amid concerns over potential supply disruptions linked to

April 2026 Page | 23