Page 12 - Policy Economic Report - August 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Outlook
Global conventional geothermal capacity is expected to increase by almost 50% to 22 GW by 2030 and to
nearly 60 GW by 2050 in the IEA Stated Policies Scenario. Under this scenario, projects currently under
development and planned for the upcoming decade will be deployed in accordance with existing
government policies. Beyond 2030, the untapped economic potential of hydrothermal resources, long-
term government goals, and increasing geothermal competitiveness are expected to drive further growth
through 2050.

3. Services trade growth slows in first quarter of 2025- World Trade Organisation (WTO)
According to WTO, global services trade growth slowed in the first quarter of 2025 to 5% year-on-year,
roughly half the pace recorded in both 2024 and 2023. The appreciation of the US dollar against the euro
and other currencies, coupled with increased economic uncertainty, contributed to the slowdown in
services trade in the early months of the year.

Services exports in Europe and North America increased by only 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of
2025, down from 8% and 11% respectively in the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, strong growth was
sustained in Asia at 9%.

The overall slowdown in services trade was mainly due to “Other commercial services,” a category that
encompasses a wide variety of mostly digitally deliverable services ranging from financial to professional
services. In 2024, “Other commercial services” accounted for some 60% of global services trade, with
Europe contributing 40% of those exports.

Figure 6: Commercial services trade growth by main sector, 2024Q1-2025Q1 (y-o-y, % change)

Source- WTO UNCTAD estimates Page | 11

August 2025