Page 7 - Policy Economic Report - December 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Global Trade
Trade developments have played a central role in shaping global growth expectations this year. Despite
the sharp rise in trade restrictions, the pace of new measures has eased in recent months. Global trade-
policy uncertainty, which surged to a peak in April, has since receded to levels comparable to those seen
at the start of the year. This moderation, combined with progress on bilateral and regional trade
negotiations, has helped stabilize business sentiment and reduce fears of a severe trade contraction.

Figure 2: Trade policy uncertainty & Global goods trade and industrial production growth

Source- World Bank

Global goods trade expanded at an average monthly rate of 4.8 percent through September 2025,
accelerating from 2.5 percent in 2024. The resilience partly reflects front-loading of shipments ahead of
tariff implementation, as well as firms’ ability to adapt supply chains and absorb some tariff-related costs.
Services trade, particularly in information and business services, has also remained robust. For EMDEs,
which now account for nearly 40 percent of global trade, deeper regional integration and new trade
agreements have further supported economic activity.

Global PMI
The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global -posted 52.7 in November,
down from 53.0 in October. This indicated another month of solid output growth with the latest reading
being the third-strongest in the past 15 months.

The latest expansion in global business activity was broad-based, with both manufacturers and services
providers reporting continued growth in new business and output, albeit at slower rates compared with
October.

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