Page 3 - Policy & Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
ROEILPO&RGTAS MARKET

List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1: Global Real GDP Growth (% change, July 2026) ............................................................................ 9
Figure 2: Consumer price inflation, annual change (%) .............................................................................. 11
Figure 3: Inflation Expectations Rise, but Mostly in the Short Term .......................................................... 12
Figure 4: Inflationary Pressures Across Emerging Markets by Major CPI Components ............................. 13
Figure 5: Monthly Trade Policy Uncertainty Index & Global Geopolitical Risk Index................................. 14
Figure 6: J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI Output Index ....................................................................... 15
Figure 7: Flash PMI Output Indicators for G4 Advanced Economies (US, Eurozone, UK and Japan) ......... 16
Figure 8: Trends in CPI (General) and Consumer Food Price Inflation (CFPI), May–June 2026................. 21
Figure 9: Inflation Rates Across Major CPI Groups (June 2026) ................................................................. 21
Figure 10: Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Inflation Rate (June 2025 – June 2026) ................................ 22
Figure 11: Inflation across Major Commodity Groups (%).......................................................................... 23
Figure 12: Output PPI for All Commodities................................................................................................. 23
Figure 13: HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index and GDP Growth (2013–2026) ................................ 25
Figure 14: HSBC India Manufacturing PMI.................................................................................................. 26
Figure 15: Total Trade during June 2026 ................................................................................................... 29
Figure 16: Index of Core Industries (ICI) and Year-on-Year Growth Rate (June 2025 – June 2026) .......... 30
Figure 17: Sector-wise Growth Rate of Core Industries – May and June 2026 ......................................... 30
Figure 18: Benchmark price of Brent, WTI and Dubai crude ...................................................................... 38
Figure 19: Indian crude oil basket price in $ per bbl................................................................................... 39
Figure 20: Refining Margins ($/bbl) ............................................................................................................ 42
Figure 21: Singapore crack Spreads vs. Dubai ($/bbl) ................................................................................ 43
Figure 22: Global natural gas price trends ($/mmbtu) ............................................................................... 46
Figure 23: Domestic natural gas price July’25–26 ($/mmbtu).................................................................... 47
Figure 24: Domestic natural gas Gross production (Qty in MMSCM) ........................................................ 48
Figure 25: LNG imports (Qty in MMSCM) ................................................................................................... 48
Figure 26: Sectoral Consumption of Natural Gas (Qty in MMSCM) in May 2026 ...................................... 49
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Table 1: CPI & Consumer Food Price Inflation (CFPI)-Inflation Rates & Index Values (June & May 2026). 20
Table 2: Trade during June 2026................................................................................................................. 28
Table 3: Crude oil price in July, 2026 .......................................................................................................... 38
Table 4: Non-DoC liquids production in 2026, mb/d .................................................................................. 40
Table 5: World Oil demand, mb/d .............................................................................................................. 41
Table 6: Singapore FOB, refined product prices ($/bbl) in June 2026 ........................................................ 43
Table 7: Petroleum products consumption in India, June 2026 and Year till Date (YTD)........................... 44
Table 8: Gas price, June 2026 ..................................................................................................................... 46

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