Page 8 - Policy Economic Report - November 2024

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Emerging Market Economies

Emerging Asia’s growth has been revised up by 0.1 percentage point for 2024 and 2025, to 5.3 percent
and 5.0 percent, respectively.

• Growth in 2024 for India has been revised up by 0.2 percentage point to 7.0 percent relative to
the April forecast, as rural consumption is benefiting from an improved agricultural season, and
as public infrastructure investment continues to expand. These trends are expected to continue
in 2025. With this, India remains the world’s fastest growing major economy.

• Growth for the countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is
forecast at a robust 4.6 percent in 2024 and at 4.7 percent in 2025, largely supported by strong
domestic demand and exports. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are all projected to grow
robustly, while activity in Thailand remains more subdued.

Global Inflation

• In advanced Asia excluding Japan, inflation exceeded policy targets by more than a percentage
point at the beginning of the year, but the overshoot has since evaporated. Rapid disinflation for
goods prices has been key, as global demand shifted from goods to services in the aftermath of
the COVID-19 pandemic and fewer supply disruptions occurred.

• In Japan, headline inflation remains above target (2.5 percent in September 2024), reflecting
broad-based price increases.

• In Asian emerging markets excluding China, disinflation has advanced faster than in other
emerging markets around the world. Inflation rates had reached pre–COVID-19 levels already at
the end of 2023 and remain at or—in some cases—even below policy targets.

• In China, consumer price inflation recovered and remained low, at 0.4 percent in September 2024.

Figure 3: Contributions to Headline Inflation (y-o-y % change)

Source- IMF

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