Page 34 - Policy Economic Report - October 2024

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 Growth %
2023 1Q24
0.28
Total OECD 45.65 44.80 45.74 46.34 46.21 45.78 0.13 0.62
3.18
~ of which US 20.36 19.92 20.47 20.71 20.85 20.49 0.13 5.02
3.56
Total Non-OECD 56.56 58.02 57.62 58.38 59.40 58.36 1.80 1.89

~ of which India# 5.34 5.66 5.66 5.48 5.65 5.61 0.27
~ of which China 16.36 16.66 16.75 17.09 17.25 16.94 0.58

Total world 102.21 102.81 103.36 104.73 105.61 104.14 1.93

Source- OPEC monthly report, September 2024
Note: 2024* = Forecast. Totals may not add up due to independent rounding

Global petroleum product prices

USGC refining margins continued to retract against WTI for the second consecutive month, with supply
side pressure leading to losses across the barrel. The impact of strong refinery runs seen in August, along
with a seasonal decline in road transportation fuels amid the end of the driving season, kept product
markets well supplied despite a monthly decline in total US product inventories. These combined supply
side and seasonality-related pressures offset solid demand support linked with robust diesel exports to
Europe and Brazil.

The landfall of hurricanes Francine and Helene in September resulted in power outages, floods, and
damage across several states. There is the possibility of temporary and indirect logistical, infrastructure
and fuel distribution constraints, though the direct impact on refining activities, plants and refinery intake
was deemed limited.

Less optimistic market sentiment at the end of the summer season led to a stronger wholesale product
price decline across the barrel, m-o-m. The average USGC product price drop across the barrel was $8.71/b
in September at the refinery gate. This was most pronounced for gasoline, which was $14.54/b, m-o-m,
lower. Although diesel exports to Europe were robust throughout the month, slower overall product
demand led to inventory builds.

Refinery intake in the USGC was 920 tb/d, m-o-m, lower, averaging 16.03 mb/d in September. USGC
margins against WTI averaged $11.74/b in September, down by $1.54, m-o-m, and $20.83, y-o-y.

Refinery margins in Rotterdam against Brent declined for the seventh consecutive month but showed the
smallest decline over this time in September, compared with registered margins in the USGC against WTI
and Singapore against Oman.

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