Page 16 - Policy Economic Report - April 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Potential negative impact on US consumers: -

The report also notes that several countries facing potential reciprocal tariffs export agricultural
commodities the US does not produce, for which there are few substitutes. Some examples can be vanilla
from Madagascar or cocoa from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. In 2024, the US imported vanilla worth
approximately $150 million from Madagascar. Cocoa imports from Côte d'Ivoire were close to $800
million, while imports from Ghana were valued at about $200 million. Increasing tariffs on these goods,
despite possibilities to add some revenues, is likely to result in higher prices for consumers.

5. Indian Economy

India’s economic growth

According to RBI in its April - Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), real GDP growth has been projected
at 6.5 per cent for 2025–26, maintaining the same rate as estimated for 2024–25, following a strong
expansion of 9.2 per cent in the preceding year.

The quarterly projections stand at 6.5 per cent in Q1, 6.7 per cent in Q2, 6.6 per cent in Q3, and 6.3 per
cent in Q4. This marks a downward revision of 20 basis points from the February estimate, reflecting
heightened global volatility.

According to RBI, agriculture remains on a positive footing, supported by healthy reservoir levels and
robust crop production, which is expected to sustain rural demand. Manufacturing is showing early signs
of revival amid improved business sentiment, and the services sector continues to demonstrate resilience.

On the investment side, activity is gaining pace on the back of higher capacity utilization, continued
government focus on infrastructure, and strong balance sheets of banks and corporates. While services
exports are likely to remain steady, merchandise exports could face headwinds from global uncertainties
and trade disruptions. Looking ahead, the RBI has projected real GDP growth at 6.7 per cent for 2026–27,
suggesting continued recovery momentum.

Further, India is poised to lead the global economy once again, with the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) projecting it to remain the fastest growing major economy over the next two years. According to
the April 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, India’s economy is expected to grow by 6.2
per cent in 2025 and 6.3 per cent in 2026, maintaining a solid lead over global and regional peers. In
contrast, the IMF projects global economic growth to be much lower, at 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3.0 per
cent in 2026, highlighting India's exceptional outperformance.

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