Page 12 - Policy Economic Report - April 2025
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POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET
3. Trade and development foresights 2025 – UNCTAD
Merchandise trade dynamism is fading
The late-2024 and early-2025 uptick in global trade was driven in part by front-loaded orders ahead of
newly announced tariffs. This momentum is expected to fade over the year as new tariffs come into effect.
Between early January and late March 2025, the Comprehensive Shanghai Export Containerized Freight
Index – a key barometer of international shipping and trade activity – fell by 40%, dropping to levels last
seen in the pre-pandemic period, when global merchandise trade was already sluggish.
Figure 6: Baltic Exchange Dry Index & Comprehensive Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, base date
= 1,000, April 2016 – March 2025
Source- UNCTAD
Trade policy uncertainty is weighing heavily on business confidence and long-term planning and reshaping
global trade patterns. Manufacturers and investors are delaying decisions, reassessing supply chain
strategies and stepping up risk management efforts.
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