Page 18 - Policy Economic Report - December 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

• Top 5 export destinations, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in April-November 2025
vis a vis April-November 2024 are U S A (11.38%), China P Rp (32.83%), Spain (54.54%), U Arab
Emts (6.7%) and Hong Kong (22.37%).

• Top 5 import sources, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in November 2025 vis a vis
November 2024 are China P Rp (18.28%), U S A (38.29%), Thailand (80.96%), Hong Kong (41.44%)
and Brazil (77.42%).

• Top 5 import sources, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in April-November 2025 vis
a vis April-November 2024 are China P Rp (12.63%), U S A (13.49%), Hong Kong (32.43%), U Arab
Emts (8.81%) and Ireland (137%).

6. Success of GST 2.0

The Government launched comprehensive GST (Goods & Services Tax) reforms, introducing rate
rationalisation with a simplified two-slab structure of 5% and 18%. The reform features sweeping rate
reductions across key sectors, focusing on common man goods, labour intensive industries, agriculture,
and healthcare, which serve as vital drivers of the economy.

Gross GST collections for October 2025 stood at ?1.96 lakh crore, marking a 4.6% increase over ?1.87 lakh
crore recorded in the same month last year. The uptick in revenue, coinciding with the onset of rate
rationalisation, underscores resilient consumption trends during the festive season.

The reduction in GST rates has lowered the cost of goods and services, boosted household savings and
consumption, while expanded the tax base. At the same time, a broader tax base is aiding stable revenue
trends, contributing to a more balanced and sustainable growth environment.

7. India’s Growth Projections

India’s growth outlook continues to strengthen, with major global and domestic institutions upgrading
their projections in recognition of the economy’s resilience and expanding domestic demand. The RBI has
revised its FY 2025–26 GDP forecast upward from 6.5% to 6.8%, reflecting robust momentum across
sectors. International agencies echo this optimism too.

• The World Bank projects 6.5% growth in 2026, citing strong consumption and the positive effects
of GST reforms;

• Moody’s expects India to remain a growing G20 economy through 2026 with growth rate of 6.4%
and 6.5% in 2027;

• The IMF has boosted its projections to 6.6% for 2025 and 6.2% for 2026.
• The OECD has raised growth forecasts to 6.7% for 2025 and 6.2% for 2026.
• The S&P anticipate that India’s GDP will grow by 6.5% in fiscal year 2026 and 6.7% in 2027.

Together, these revisions highlight broad international confidence in India’s economic fundamentals and
its ability to sustain strong, domestically driven growth despite evolving global challenges.

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