Page 7 - Policy Economic Report - February 2023

Policy and Economic Report:
Oil & Gas Market

Global Manufacturers Purchasing Managers’ Index

• The economic outlook for 2023 and 2024 remains uncertain. It is highly susceptible to the pace
and sequence of further monetary tightening, the course and consequences of the war in Ukraine
and other geopolitical tensions, and the possibility of further supply chain disruptions.

Figure- Manufacturing Purchasing Index

Source- United Nations

• The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, a leading indicator of economic activities,
declined steadily in 2022, remaining in contraction territory from September to November 2022.

• Slow global growth in 2023 would mean that output losses compared with the pre-COVID-19
growth trajectory will further increase, especially in developing countries.

Global inflation

• Soaring food and energy prices and renewed supply shocks, caused by the Russia-Ukraine war,
have not only fueled a surge in inflation but also pushed up short- and medium-term inflation
expectations. In 2022, global inflation reached an estimated 9 %, the highest level in the past two
decades.

• Upward price pressures will likely ease due to aggressive monetary tightening, but the global
inflation is projected to remain elevated at 6.5 % in 2023.

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