Page 9 - Policy Economic Report - February 2023

Policy and Economic Report:
Oil & Gas Market

Figure- Central Banks stance on policy rates to curb inflation

Global trade

• International trade flows are projected to further weaken in 2023. United Nations projects that
the volume of global trade in goods and services will contract slightly by 0.4 %, down from 6 % in
2022.

• Trade patterns varied across regions and countries in 2022. The war severely hit world trade in
goods, as many global industries rely on supplies of key commodities produced in the Russian
Federation and Ukraine, such as energy, food and fertilizers. The adverse impact was particularly
evident in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. In contrast, the
consequent energy crunch drove higher fuel exports from Africa and the Middle East, where
exports in volume terms recovered to the pre-pandemic level in mid-2022.

• International merchandise trade grew at a slower pace in 2022 compared to 2021 (figure I.15a).
Despite unexpected shocks, this growth moderation was partially anticipated, due to waning base
effects and the shift in demand from more durable goods during the pandemic to the
consumption of services as economies began to emerge from lockdowns.

• World services trade has regained its pre-pandemic level. In the second quarter of 2022, services
trade grew by 17 % over the same quarter in 2021 and totaled about $1.7 trillion. Among different

February 2023 Page | 8