Page 37 - Policy Economic Report_Feb'25

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %
2024 1Q25 46.47 46.60 45.91 0.11 0.23
20.72 20.84 20.51 0.04 0.21
Total OECD 45.80 44.89 45.63 59.03 60.11 59.29 1.34 2.32
5.55 5.89 5.79 0.24 4.31
~ of which US 20.46 19.95 20.50 17.08 17.12 16.98 0.31 1.86
Total Non-OECD 57.95 59.31 58.71 105.50 106.71 105.20 1.45 1.40

~ of which India# 5.55 5.88 5.86

~ of which China 16.67 16.99 16.74
Total world 103.75 104.20 104.34

Source- OPEC monthly report, February 2025

Global petroleum product prices

USGC refining margins reversed directions following the previous month’s downturn to reach an eight-
month high in January. Crack spreads for most major products increased, most pronouncedly for naphtha,
which jumped $4.19/b, m-o-m. Transportation fuel cracks performed positively, with the middle distillate
crack spreads up by $3.48/b and $2.63/b for jet/kerosene and diesel, respectively. According to
preliminary data, refinery intake in the USGC was 1.04 mb/d lower, m-o-m, averaging 15.91 mb/d in
January. The improvement in refining economics was largely attributed to product output reductions as
severe weather caused temporary refinery shutdowns. Although the impact of winter storms on refineries
in the USGC in January was limited, secondary unit outages contributed to short-lived product supply
disruptions, thus providing support to product markets. Moreover, an increase in refinery turnaround
works ahead of the heavy maintenance season further weighed on product supplies, strengthening
product margins. USGC margins against WTI averaged $15.08/b in January, up by $2.00, m-o-m, but down
$8.08, y-o-y.

Refinery margins in Rotterdam against Brent registered a slight decrease while continuously
demonstrating significant stability for the fourth consecutive month compared to the margin performance
seen in the USGC and Singapore. Crack spreads of all key products decreased, except for jet/kerosene and
gasoil cracks, which moved up, m-o-m. Platts data from 30 January indicated a significant total product
inventory rise at the Amsterdam- Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub in January. This was the largest
monthly total product stock build registered since February 2024, signalling a growing demand-supply
imbalance leading to an overall weaker product market in Northwest Europe. Refinery runs in January
reversed trends and moved down by an estimated 200 tb/d, m-o-m, before settling at 9.77 mb/d across
the EU-14 plus Norway and the UK. Refinery margins against Brent in Europe averaged $7.17/b in January,
which was 71? lower, m-o-m, and $4.82 lower, y-o-y.

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