Page 14 - Policy & Economic Report - June 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

• Trade policy uncertainty continues to weigh on exports prospects, however the conclusion of free
trade agreement (FTA) with the United Kingdom and progress with other countries is supportive
of trade activity.

• Agriculture prospects remain bright on the back of an above normal south- west monsoon
forecast and resilient allied activities.

• Services sector is expected to maintain its momentum.
• Taking into consideration the above factors the policy projects real GDP growth for 2025-26 is

projected at 6.5 per cent, with Q1 at 6.5 per cent, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, Q3 at 6.6 per cent, and Q4
at 6.3 per cent.

Figure 6: Quarterly projection of real GDP growth (y-o-y)

Source- RBI

Inflation in India

• Headline inflation-: Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for
the month of May, 2025 over May, 2024 is 2.82% (Provisional). There is decline of 34 basis points
in headline inflation of May, 2025 in comparison to April, 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year
inflation after February, 2019.

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