Page 30 - Policy & Economic Report - June 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d

2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %
45.51 46.32 46.13 45.83 0.16 0.35
Total OECD 45.67 45.35 20.46 20.67 20.72 20.57 0.15 0.73
58.68 59.21 60.23 59.31 1.13 1.96
~ of which US 20.42 20.44 5.78 5.50 5.91 5.72 0.17 3.06
16.56 17.03 17.04 16.87 0.22 1.32
Total Non-OECD 58.17 59.09 104.19 105.53 106.36 105.13 1.29 1.24
~ of which India 5.55 5.70
~ of which China 16.65 16.86

Total world 103.84 104.44

Source- OPEC monthly report, June 2025

Global petroleum product prices

USGC refining margins against WTI continued to trend upwards, rising for the second consecutive month
and reaching a three-month high in May. Robust gasoline markets continued to lift margins on the back
of improving demand, in line with seasonality. Regular gasoline represented the strongest positive
contributor, backed by improving demand, despite a monthly decline in premium gasoline crack spreads.
Additionally, fuel oil 3.0% sulphur further added to the upside as fuel oil demand for feedstock blending
and for conversion units increased with the end of repair works. The gasoline upside came against the
backdrop of rising product inventories, with supply-side driven weakness associated with all other US
products. This pressure was completely overshadowed by the gasoline and residual fuel demand-side
driven gains. According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the USGC added 500 tb/d to the previous
month’s increase, averaging 16.64 mb/d in May. USGC margins against WTI averaged $18.49/b in May, up
by $1.61, m-o-m, and up $3.52, y-o-y.

Refinery margins in Rotterdam against Brent showed a strong recovery following the previous month's
downturn, reaching a three-month high. Strong gasoline outflows to Canada and a modest rise in gasoline
flows to the US contributed to the gains. Additionally, a contraction in fuel oil availability amid lower
inflows from East of Suez and lower global supply further underpinned European product markets.
Moreover, improvement in naphtha volume requirements for gasoline blending added to the upside in
refining economics for the month of May.

June 2025 Page | 29