Page 11 - Policy Economic Report - October 2024
P. 11
POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET
2. As inflation recedes, global economy needs policy triple pivot – IMF
Inflation after peaking at 9.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, will fall to 3.5 percent by
the end of next year, slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic. In most
countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing
across major central banks.
Figure 6: Percentage point deviation from Central Bank target
Source- IMF
The global economy remained unusually resilient throughout the disinflationary process. Growth is
projected to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, but some low-income and developing
economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to intensifying conflicts.
Much of the disinflation can be attributed to the unwinding of the shocks themselves, together with
improvements in labor supply, often linked to increased immigration. But monetary policy played a
decisive role by keeping inflation expectations anchored, avoiding deleterious wage-price spirals.
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