Page 8 - Policy Economic Report - October 2024

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

• The growth outlook for emerging market and developing economies is remarkably stable for the
next two years, hovering at about 4.2 percent and steadying at 3.9 percent by 2029.

o Emerging Asia’s strong growth is expected to subside, from 5.7 percent in 2023 to 5.0 percent
in 2025. In India, the outlook is for GDP growth to moderate from 8.2 percent in 2023 to 7
percent in 2024 and 6.5 percent in 2025, because pent-up demand accumulated during the
pandemic has been exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential.

o In China, the slowdown is projected to be more gradual. Despite persisting weakness in the
real estate sector and low consumer confidence, growth is projected to have slowed only
marginally to 4.8 percent in 2024.

• In sub-Saharan Africa, GDP growth is projected to increase from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2023
to 4.2 percent in 2025, as the adverse impacts of prior weather shocks abate and supply
constraints gradually ease.

• In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to decline from 2.2 percent in 2023 to
2.1 percent in 2024 before rebounding to 2.5 percent in 2025. In Brazil, growth is projected at 3.0
percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025.

Global Inflation

• According to IMF, global headline inflation is projected to decrease from an average of 6.7 percent
in 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024 and 4.3 percent in 2025.

• Disinflation is expected to be faster in advanced economies—with a decline of 2 percentage points
from 2023 to 2024 and a stabilization at about 2 percent in 2025. Inflation in emerging Asia is
projected to be on par with that in advanced economies, at 2.1 percent in 2024 and 2.7 percent
in 2025, mainly due to early monetary tightening and price controls in many countries in the
region

• In emerging market and developing economies, inflation is projected to decline from 8.1 percent
in 2023 to 7.9 percent in 2024 and then fall at a faster pace in 2025 to 5.9 percent. This is mainly
on account of large outliers amid pass-through of past currency depreciation and
underperformance in agriculture.

• With decelerating inflation, many Central banks have cut down the policy rates to ensure smooth
economic activity and restore consumer confidence.

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