Page 3 - Policy Economic Report - October 2024

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1: Global growth projections (real GDP growth, % change) ............................................................. 5
Figure 2: World Economic Outlook Projections (real GDP growth, annual & change) ................................ 6
Figure 3: Inflation Outlook ........................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 4: Change in policy rates by central banks globally .......................................................................... 8
Figure 5: Global economic growth and the PMI .......................................................................................... 9
Figure 6: Percentage point deviation from Central Bank target................................................................ 10
Figure 7: Real GDP growth, 2024 ............................................................................................................... 11
Figure 8: Downside risks to world GDP, deviation from baseline.............................................................. 11
Figure 9: Elevated risks to public debt ....................................................................................................... 14
Figure 10: Multiple sources contribute to unidentified debt buildup ....................................................... 14
Figure 11: Fossil fuels to lose majority share of total power to cleaner sources in BRICS countries by end
of 2024 ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Figure 12: Quarterly projection of real GDP growth (y-o-y) ...................................................................... 17
Figure 13: All India Index of Industrial Production .................................................................................... 18
Figure 14: Inflation trends based on CPI and CFPI ..................................................................................... 19
Figure 15: Projection of CPI inflation (y-o-y).............................................................................................. 19
Figure 16: Overall Trade during September 2024...................................................................................... 21
Figure 17: Total Trade during April- September 2024 ............................................................................... 22
Figure 18: Renewable energy capacity in India ......................................................................................... 25
Figure 19: Benchmark price of Brent, WTI and Dubai crude ...................................................................... 30
Figure 20: Indian crude oil basket price in $ per bbl................................................................................... 31
Figure 21: Refining Margins ($/bbl) ............................................................................................................ 34
Figure 22: Singapore crack Spreads vs. Dubai ($/bbl) ................................................................................ 35
Figure 23: Global natural gas price trends ($/mmbtu) ............................................................................... 38
Figure 24: Domestic natural gas price October’23–24 ($/mmbtu)............................................................. 39
Figure 25: Domestic natural gas Gross production (Qty in MMSCM) ........................................................ 40
Figure 26: LNG imports (Qty in MMSCM) ................................................................................................... 41
Figure 27: Sectoral Consumption of Natural Gas (Qty in MMSCM) in April-September 2024................... 41
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Table 1: Trade during September 2024 ...................................................................................................... 21
Table 2: Crude oil price in October, 2024 ................................................................................................... 30
Table 3: Non-DoC liquids production in 2024, mb/d .................................................................................. 32
Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d .............................................................................................................. 33
Table 5: Singapore FOB, refined product prices ($/bbl) in September 2024.............................................. 35
Table 6: Petroleum products consumption in India, September 2024 and Year till Date (YTD) 2024 ....... 36
Table 7: Gas price, September 2024 ........................................................................................................... 38
Table 8: Gas price, GCV Basis ...................................................................................................................... 39

October 2024 Page | 2