Page 8 - Policy Economic Report - April 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Global Inflation

According to IMF, global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and
4.5% in 2025.

Advanced economies are expected to return sooner to rates near their pre-pandemic (2017–19) average,
with inflation averaging 2.0 percent in 2025, about a year before emerging market and developing
economies are expected to return to their pre-pandemic average near 5.0 percent.

The global inflation forecast is revised upward by 0.1 percentage point in 2024 from the January 2024
projections. This reflects unchanged projections for advanced economies—with decreases in the euro
area, Japan, and the United Kingdom compensated by an increase in the United States—and an upside
revision of 0.2 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies.

Figure 3: Headline inflation

Source- IMF

Global Trade

World trade growth is projected at 3.0 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025, with trade growth
expected to remain below its historical (2000–19) annual average growth rate of 4.9 percent over the
medium term and at 3.2 percent in 2029. This projection implies, relatively low outlook for economic
growth, a ratio of total world trade to GDP (in current dollars) that averages 57 percent over the next five
years.

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