Page 8 - Policy Economic Report - April 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

• While transport fuel demand remained robust, refinery output growth stayed nearly flat at 0.1%
YoY. This stagnation suggests that refiners faced capacity constraints or operational hurdles—
likely a mix of planned maintenance, sluggish export markets, and the drag from sharply lower
aviation turbine fuel (ATF) consumption.

• Increased natural gas availability (+6.4% YoY) was undermined by a 24.6% collapse in fertilizer
output. This implies that industrial gas consumption has weakened, preventing the economy from
fully leveraging the domestic production surge.

• A downturn in coal (-4.0%) and electricity (-0.5%) production suggests a slowdown in heavy
industrial activity, limiting fuel demand. However, the resilience of the steel and cement sectors—
growing by 2.2% and 4.0% respectively—provided a critical floor for diesel demand, driven by
ongoing infrastructure projects.

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