Page 34 - Policy Economic Report - August 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d

2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %

Total OECD 45.67 45.15 45.62 46.32 46.13 45.81 0.14 0.31
20.67 20.72 20.57 0.15 0.73
~ of which US 20.42 20.42 20.48 59.21 60.23 59.33 1.15 1.99
5.50 5.91 5.70 0.15 2.70
Total Non-OECD 58.17 59.13 58.72 17.03 17.04 16.85 0.20 1.20
~ of which India 5.55 5.70 5.70 105.53 106.36 105.14 1.29 1.25

~ of which China 16.65 16.86 16.47

Total world 103.84 104.29 104.34

Source- OPEC monthly report, August 2025

Global petroleum product prices

USGC refining margins against WTI reached a 16-month high in July. Tighter middle distillate balances in
the USGC amid historically low diesel inventories and diesel production constraints exerted upward
pressure on diesel/gasoil prices and crack spreads. These dynamics positioned diesel as the main margin
driver in July. The resulting rise in diesel/gasoil margins likely contributed to a call for higher diesel yields
at the cost of that for jet/kerosene. This, coupled with healthy air travel activities over the summer season
and the subsequent uptick in jet/kerosene demand, likely contributed to higher jet/kerosene margins in
the Atlantic Basin. Additionally, slight naphtha and gasoline gains further contributed to the upturn in July
USGC refining margins. According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the USGC remained nearly flat
and added only 10 tb/d to the previous month’s level, to average 17.24 mb/d in July. USGC margins against
WTI averaged $20.62/b in July, up by $3.57, m-o-m, and up by $6.29, y-o-y.

Refinery margins in Rotterdam against Brent jumped and exhibited the largest m-o-m increase compared
to other key trading hubs. This was possibly a result of the EU’s 18th package of sanctions against Russia,
as secondary sources reported possible signs of trade disruptions for Russian products. According to
Vortexa, Russia’s oil product exports declined in July to their lowest level in nine months amid reduced
refinery rates and a spike in domestic summer demand. Vortexa data also showed refined fuel flows falling
4%, m-o-m, to 2.1 mb/d.

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