Page 38 - Policy Economic Report - August 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review
• Natural gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $3.20 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in July 2025. Henry Hub's natural gas prices rebounded in July after four
consecutive months of decline, increasing by 6.0%, m-o-m. Prices rose on the back of higher LNG
exports and reports of lower storage levels. According to data from the US Energy Information
Administration, average weekly natural gas storage increased by 7.9%, m-o-m, in July; however,
it was down by 4.9%, y-o-y, signaling higher consumption. Prices were up by 54.6%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $11.62 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) receded after two
consecutive months of gains, falling by 6.0%, m-o-m. Prices experienced elevated volatility
throughout the month amid geopolitical developments in the region and maintenance outages at
key Norwegian facilities. However, higher US LNG imports in the period eased market concerns
on supply risk and lowered the geopolitical risk premium on prices. According to data from Gas
Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels rose to 68.6% as of the end of July, up from 58.9% in June,
a 9.8 pp increase. Prices were up by 12.3%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $12.10 per MMBtu for July 2025. There is a
change of -0.6% from last month and 3.1% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling was
further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated
30th September 2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas price ceiling was further
revised for the period 1st April, 2025 – 30th September, 2025 was notified as US$10.04/MMBTU
on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis.

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