Page 31 - FIPI - Policy Economic Report - May 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

The Southeast Asia gasoline 92 crack spread against Dubai rose as a pick-up in refinery maintenance
activities in the region and lower gasoline exports from China led to tighter supplies. The reduction in
refinery runs unlocked gasoline import requirements from several countries in the region, particularly
from Japan. Moreover, a surge in gasoline exports from Singapore to Mexico provided additional
support. The product’s margin averaged $7.52/b in April, up 60?, m-o-m, but down $5.43, y-o-y.

Figure 18: Singapore crack Spreads vs. Dubai ($/bbl)

Source- Argus and OPEC

The Singapore gasoil crack spread showed notable loss and represented the strongest negative
performer compared to all other key products across the barrel. This was the result of challenging
arbitrage openings, with some export volumes reportedly backlogged in cross-regional ports waiting to
be discharged. According to secondary sources, diesel exports from India plunged in April as refinery
turnarounds at domestic refineries limited diesel output. This likely prevented a steeper downturn in
Asian gasoil markets as barrels beyond the domestic requirements faced difficulties finding destinations
outside the region. The Singapore gasoil crack spread against Dubai averaged $9.51/b, down $3.04, m-o-
m, and $4.87, y-o-y.

Table 5: Singapore FOB, refined product prices ($/bbl) in April 2025

Singapore product prices Price ($/b) MoM (%) YoY (%)
change change
-17.8%
Naphtha 62.16 -10.8% -27.9%
-26.2%
Premium gasoline (unleaded 95) 76.66 -5.4% -21.4%
-21.9%
Regular gasoline (unleaded 92) 75.31 -5.3% -20.9%
-15.5%
Jet/Kerosene 80.77 -5.3%

Gasoil/Diesel (50 ppm) 81.45 -5.3%

Fuel oil (180 cst 2.0% S) 80.15 -5.6%

Fuel oil (380 cst 3.5% S) 64.82 -8.6%

Source- OPEC

May 2025 Page | 30