Page 40 - FIPI - Policy & Economic Report May 2026
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POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET
the Atlantic Basin, where North Sea Dated surged to multi-year highs, supported by strong demand from
both European and Asia-Pacific refiners and increasing competition for shorter-haul crudes. However, the
Dubai price dropped despite persistent market fundamentals, particularly in the sour market.
In the second half of April, spot price declined as supply risk premiums softened amid expectations of
easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Lower refining margins in Europe and the USGC, along with
a further decline in world refinery crude intakes, also weighed on spot prices. Spot prices traded sharply
higher compared to futures prices, suggesting that futures markets may not have fully reflected tightness
in the physical market. In April, North Sea Dated and WTI first-month prices rose by $17.56/b and $7.47/b,
m-o-m, respectively, to average $121.40/b and $98.63/b. However, Dubai's first-month price dropped by
$22.69/b, m-o-m, to average $105.56/b.
In April, the ORB value dropped by $7.57/b, m-o-m, to average $108.79/b. West and North African Basket
components Bonny Light, Djeno, Es Sider, Rabi Light, Sahara Blend and Zafiro increased by an average of
$20.49/b, m-o-m, to $122.90/b. Multiple-region destination grades, including Arab Light, Basrah Medium,
Iran Heavy and Kuwait Export, fell on average by $15.73/b, m-o-m, to $106.09/b. Murban crude declined
on average by $6.40/b, m-o-m, to $104.46/b, while the Merey component increased by $4.55/b, m-o-m,
to settle at $90.47/b.
Brent crude ranged an average to $107.11 a barrel and WTI ranged to $100.87 per barrel in the month of
May 2026.
Figure 15: Benchmark price of Brent, WTI and Dubai crude
125
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25
Brent Spot Price ($/bbl) WTI Spot Price ($/bbl) Dubai spot price ($/bbl)
Source: World Bank
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