Page 42 - FIPI - Policy & Economic Report May 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

? In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last
month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs)
and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by 0.1
mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is
forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In April, crude oil production by countries participating
in the DoC dropped by 1.74 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 33.19 mb/d, according to available
secondary sources.

Table 5: Non-DoC liquids production in 2026, mb/d

Non-OPEC liquids production 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026
28.41 28.82 29.04 28.56
Americas 28.29 27.95 22.40 22.60 22.69 22.37
3.57 3.54 3.65 3.63
of which US 22.22 21.78 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.39
32.37 32.74 33.07 32.58
Europe 3.63 3.74 4.69 4.57 4.57 4.64
0.82 0.82 0.83 0.82
Asia Pacific 0.41 0.41 1.62 1.61 1.61 1.62
8.03 8.09 8.22 8.11
Total OECD 32.32 32.10 1.59 1.95 1.96 1.78
2.23 2.24 2.31 2.25
China 4.62 4.73 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
India 0.82 0.82 19.43 19.73 19.94 19.68
51.80 52.47 53.01 52.26
Other Asia 1.64 1.65 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57
54.37 55.04 55.58 54.83
Latin America 7.55 8.11

Middle East 1.99 1.63

Africa 2.27 2.24

Other Eurasia 0.36 0.36

Other Europe 0.09 0.09

Total Non-OECD 19.34 19.63

Total Non-DoC production 51.66 51.74

Processing gains 2.54 2.57

Total Non-DoC liquids production 54.20 54.31

Source: OPEC monthly report, May 2026

? From the above table, it can be inferred, that the total non-DoC liquids production is expected to
reach 54.83 mb/d by 2026.

? The non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquid production countries not participating in the Declaration
of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d to average in 2026.

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