Page 44 - Policy Economic Report - September 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Indian Basket Crude oil price

Figure 20: Indian crude oil basket price in $ per bbl

140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100

95
90
85
80
75
70

Source: PPAC

• Indian crude basket price averaged $116.09 per barrel in September 2026, up by 29.1% on Month on
Month (M-o-M) and by 66.7% on a year on year (Y-o-Y) basis, respectively.

Oil production situation

• Non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquids production from countries not participating in the DoC) is
forecast to expand by about 0.6 mb/d in 2026 to average 54.84 mb/d. This is unchanged from last
month’s assessment. The main liquids production growth drivers are expected to be Brazil, the US,
Canada, and Argentina.

• In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last
month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are
expected to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.7 mb/d in 2026. Further growth of about
0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In August, crude oil production by
countries participating in the DoC increased by 0.30 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 38.05 mb/d,
according to available secondary sources.
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