Page 46 - Policy Economic Report - September 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 5: World Oil demand, mb/d Growth %
2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026

Total OECD 46.25 46.00 45.26 46.69 46.59 46.14 -0.11 -0.24

~ of which US 20.74 20.80 20.85 21.39 20.88 20.98 0.24 1.16

Total Non-OECD 59.21 60.29 57.66 59.58 61.25 59.70 0.49 0.83

~ of which India 5.65 5.85 5.37 5.53 6.08 5.71 0.06 1.06

~ of which China 16.88 17.24 16.05 17.11 17.19 16.90 0.01 0.12

Total world 105.46 106.29 102.92 106.27 107.85 105.84 0.38 0.36

Source: OPEC monthly report, September 2026

Global petroleum product prices
USGC refining margins against WTI increased further in August. The upside was largely driven by middle
distillates, particularly diesel, as strong export demand from Europe and Latin America tightened US
supplies despite high refinery processing rates. Reduced Russian diesel availability raised the call on US
diesel, with US diesel/gasoil exports reaching an elevated level of around 1.6 mb/d in August. Jet/kerosene
margins also strengthened, supported by firm seasonal demand and tightness in the wider middle
distillate market. However, gasoline margins eased as the US summer driving season approached
its end.

According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the US rose by about 100 tb/d, m-o-m, to average
17.52 mb/d in August. USGC margins against WTI averaged $53.34/b, up $7.64/b, m-o-m, and up
$38.27/b, y-o-y.

In Rotterdam, refinery margins rose further, but more slowly than in the USGC. Diesel provided most of
the support as restricted Russian exports tightened supplies and increased competition for alternative
barrels. Strong US inflows provided some relief later in the month, but regional stocks remained low.
Gasoline margins eased from July levels as seasonal demand softened, while weak naphtha markets also
capped the overall margin increase. Moreover, exceptionally low Rhine water levels in August constrained
inland product flows and added to the supply tightness, particularly in Germany.

According to preliminary data, refinery runs in EU-14 plus Norway and the UK increased slightly by about
60 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 10.12 mb/d in August. Refinery margins against Brent averaged $45.07/b, up
$2.94/b, m-o-m, and $35.13/b higher, y-o-y.

In Singapore, margins declined, reversing part of the previous month's gains. The weakness reflected
higher regional refinery runs and increased clean-product exports, particularly from China. Higher product
availability weighed on gasoline and naphtha cracks. Diesel cracks rose, m-o-m, in August, but faced

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