Page 3 - Policy Economic Report - April 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1: Global GDP growth projections (Real GDP growth, % change) .................................................... 5
Figure 2: Global GDP growth projections for 2025 and 2026...................................................................... 6
Figure 3: Headline inflation.......................................................................................................................... 7
Figure 4: Global Trade Outlook (% of GDP).................................................................................................. 8
Figure 5: ADB GDP Growth forecast ............................................................................................................ 9
Figure 6: Baltic Exchange Dry Index & Comprehensive Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, base date =
1,000, April 2016 – March 2025.................................................................................................................. 11
Figure 7: Monthly trade policy uncertainty index, Index numbers, April 2016 – March 2025.................. 12
Figure 8: Monthly exports of goods by trading partner groups, USD bn, Dec 2015 – Nov 2024 .............. 13
Figure 9: Some of 28 trading partners targeted by reciprocal tariffs (< 0.1% to total US trade deficit) ... 14
Figure 10: GDP growth rates (2025-26) ..................................................................................................... 16
Figure 11: India’s retail inflation on a decline (in %).................................................................................. 16
Figure 12: Year on Year Inflation rate based on CPI .................................................................................. 17
Figure 13: Overall Trade during March 2025 ............................................................................................. 21
Figure 14: Total Trade during April- March 2025....................................................................................... 21
Figure 15: ADB India’s forecast .................................................................................................................. 24
Figure 16: AI investments over past decade.............................................................................................. 25
Figure 17: Benchmark price of Brent, WTI and Dubai crude ...................................................................... 28
Figure 18: Indian crude oil basket price in $ per bbl................................................................................... 29
Figure 19: Refining Margins ($/bbl) ............................................................................................................ 32
Figure 20: Singapore crack Spreads vs. Dubai ($/bbl) ................................................................................ 32
Figure 21: Global natural gas price trends ($/mmbtu) ............................................................................... 36
Figure 22: Domestic natural gas price March’24–25 ($/mmbtu) ............................................................... 37
Figure 23: Domestic natural gas Gross production (Qty in MMSCM) ........................................................ 38
Figure 24: LNG imports (Qty in MMSCM) ................................................................................................... 39
Figure 25: Sectoral Consumption of Natural Gas (Qty in MMSCM) in April 2024-March 2025 ................. 39
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Table 1: Trade during March 2025.............................................................................................................. 20
Table 2: Crude oil price in April, 2025......................................................................................................... 28
Table 3: Non-DoC liquids production in 2025, mb/d .................................................................................. 30
Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d .............................................................................................................. 31
Table 5: Singapore FOB, refined product prices ($/bbl) in March 2025 ..................................................... 33
Table 6: Petroleum products consumption in India, March 2025 and Year till Date (YTD)........................ 34
Table 7: Gas price, March 2025 .................................................................................................................. 36
Table 8: Gas price, GCV Basis ...................................................................................................................... 36

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