Page 5 - Policy Economic Report - April 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

export orders during April amid healthy demand from Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the
Americas.

On the external front, India’s foreign exchange reserves saw an increase of $1.567 billion reaching to
$677.835 billion, in the week ending April 11, according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India
(RBI). Further, India’s total exports (Merchandise and Services combined) for March 2025 are estimated
at US$ 73.61 Billion, registering a growth of 2.65 percent vis-à-vis March 2024. Total imports
(Merchandise and Services combined) for March 2025 is estimated at US$ 77.23 Billion, registering a
growth of 4.90 percent vis-à-vis March 2024.

As far as oil and gas industry is concerned, global oil markets were disrupted by a series of trade tariff
announcements in early April, after a period of relative stability. Benchmark crude oil prices plunged to
their lowest levels in four years on a sharp escalation in trade tensions and the prospect of higher supplies
from some OPEC+ countries. Brent futures tumbled by more than $15/bbl, to below $60/bbl, but
subsequently recovered to around $65/bbl after the implementation of some of the tariffs was
postponed. While imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from the tariffs
announced by the United States, concerns that the measures could stoke inflation, slow economic growth
and intensify trade disputes weighed on oil prices.

Hedge funds and other money managers’ net long positions dropped in the first half of the month by
nearly 7%, fuelling oil price volatility. However, net long positions rebounded in the second half of the
month. Between the Last weeks of February and March, speculators raised net long positions in the two
major futures contracts ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI by nearly 23% and were net buyers of about 66 mb.

Crude oil spot prices fell for a second consecutive month in March, driven by the decline in oil futures
markets and further easing of oil supply risk premiums. Spot prices also came under pressure from lower
refining margins in all major markets, as well as lower global refinery intake amid refinery maintenance
season. Higher crude stocks in the US and signs of a well-supplied crude market in the Atlantic Basin also
weighed on the spot market.

Natural gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $4.12 per million British thermal units
(MMBtu) in March 2025. Henry Hub's natural gas prices receded in March after trending upwards for
three consecutive months. Earlier in the month, prices were supported by reports of a decline in storage
levels amid residential heating demand. However, they closed the month down by 2.2%, m-o-m,
pressured by softer US LNG exports amid maintenance activities at key export hubs. However, they were
still up by more than 100%, y-o-y.

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