Page 4 - Policy Economic Report - April 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Executive Summary

According to IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook Report released in April 2025, the GDP for the world
economy is projected to grow at 3.2 % during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023. The projection
for global growth in 2024 and 2025 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8 %, reflecting
restrictive monetary policies and withdrawal of fiscal support.

A slight acceleration for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 % in 2023 to
1.7 % in 2024 and 1.8 % in 2025—will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing
economies from 4.3 % in 2023 to 4.2 % in both 2024 and 2025.

In case of India, according to RBI in its April - Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), real GDP growth has
been projected at 6.5 per cent for 2025–26, maintaining the same rate as estimated for 2024–25,
following a strong expansion of 9.2 per cent in the preceding year. The quarterly projections stand at 6.5
per cent in Q1, 6.7 per cent in Q2, 6.6 per cent in Q3, and 6.3 per cent in Q4. This marks a downward
revision of 20 basis points from the February estimate, reflecting heightened global volatility.

Further, India is poised to lead the global economy once again, with the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) projecting it to remain the fastest growing major economy over the next two years. According to
the April 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, India’s economy is expected to grow by 6.2
per cent in 2025 and 6.3 per cent in 2026, maintaining a solid lead over global and regional peers. In
contrast, the IMF projects global economic growth to be much lower, at 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3.0 per
cent in 2026, highlighting India's exceptional outperformance.

Retail inflation in India, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to a remarkable 4.6% in the
fiscal year 2024-25, the lowest since 2018-19. Retail inflation in India has followed a steady downward
path over the past three financial years, falling from 6.7 percent in 2022–23 to 5.4 percent in 2023–24,
and further to 4.6 percent in 2024–25. The year-on-year inflation rate for March 2025 dropped to 3.34%,
a decline of 27 basis points from February 2025, marking the lowest monthly inflation rate since August
2019. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to reduce the policy repo rate by 25
basis points, bringing it down to 6 per cent with immediate effect. The repo rate is the rate at which the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lends money to commercial banks.

India's private sector expansion reached an eight-month high in April, 2025, fuelled by strong demand and
a notable surge in foreign orders for manufactured goods, according to the HSBC Flash India Composite
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global. The Composite PMI rose to 60.0 in April from
59.5 in March, marking the strongest growth in combined manufacturing and services activity since
August. A reading above 50 signals expansion.

The manufacturing sector showed particularly strong momentum, with its PMI climbing to 58.4, up from
58.1, reaching a one-year high. The services sector also maintained solid growth, with its PMI increasing
to 59.1 from 58.5, the highest level in four months. Private sector firms noted a record increase in new

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