Page 36 - Policy Economic Report - April 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

• Natural gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $4.12 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in March 2025. Henry Hub's natural gas prices receded in March after trending
upwards for three consecutive months. Earlier in the month, prices were supported by reports of
a decline in storage levels amid residential heating demand. However, they closed the month
down by 2.2%, m-o-m, pressured by softer US LNG exports amid maintenance activities at key
export hubs. However, they were still up by more than 100%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $13.24 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) declined in March after
two consecutive months of gains, falling by 13.7%, m-o-m. TTF prices fell sharply amid a retraction
in the geopolitical risk premium. Moreover, expectations of additional LNG capacity in the US
eased market concerns about supply risk ahead of the beginning of the injection season.
According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels were at 33.8% of capacity as
of 31 March. Prices were down by 54.7%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $12.70 per MMBtu for March 2025. There
is a change of -0.6% from last month and -3.7% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling was
further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated
30th September 2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas price ceiling was further
revised for the period 1st April, 2025 – 30th September, 2025 was notified as US$10.04/MMBTU
on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis.

APRIL 2025 Page | 35