Page 35 - Policy Economic Report - April 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Global petroleum product prices

USGC refining margins against WTI rose 150% relative to February levels, reaching the highest level since
January 2023. The increase was primarily attributed to jet/kerosene, followed by gasoil, in line with the
massive m-o-m crack spread gains registered in March for the same products, driven by a contraction in
global balances. Additionally, all other products across the barrel further contributed to the gains, in
contrast to what was observed in the other reported trading hubs. Domestically sourced feedstock,
although it partially represents the crude diet for US refiners, offered a competitive economic advantage,
lifting product margins beyond those of middle distillates. Moreover, global product tightness supported
exports, adding to the increase in US refining margins.

According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the USGC increased by 380 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 16.54
mb/d in March. USGC margins against WTI averaged $40.50/b, up $24.36, m-o-m, and $26.57, y-o-y.

Rotterdam refinery margins against Brent jumped 333.7% from the February level and posted the largest
m-o-m rise among the reported key trading hubs, despite a lower baseline relative to the USGC. Crude
and product flow disruptions contributed to a tighter product market in the region, particularly for middle
distillates. A considerable volume of diesel (250 tb/d) and nearly 60% of jet/kerosene (280 tb/d) imports
in the first two months of the year sailed into Europe through maritime channels currently exposed to
ongoing geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, total product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp
storage hub declined 10.2%, m-o-m, and 12.2%, y-o-y, according to S&P Global data published on 2 April.

According to preliminary data, March refinery runs in EU-14, Norway and the UK decreased by 390 tb/d
to an average of 9.09 mb/d. Refinery margins against Brent in Europe averaged $33.40/b in March, which
was $25.70 higher, m-o-m, and $26.14 higher, y-o-y.

Figure 12: Refining Margins ($/bbl)

Source - Argus and OPEC

The Southeast Asia gasoline 92 crack spread against Dubai weakened, pressured by limited demand. Going
forward, gasoline fundamentals in the West of Suez are expected to improve amid warmer weather in the

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