Page 38 - Policy Economic Report - April 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

• Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $3.04 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in March 2026. Henry Hub natural gas prices dropped for a second consecutive
month in March, falling 15.7%, m-o-m. Prices continued to decline amid a shift from end-of winter
demand to the restocking season. According to data from the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA), the withdrawal rate dropped by 96.4%, m-o-m. Losses were limited by
higher US LNG demand in March amid supply disruptions in the Middle East. Prices were down by
26.2%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $17.91 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price increased by ~59.3%,
m-o-m, in March. Prices rose sharply in the period on the back of a higher geopolitical risk
premium amid Middle East supply disruptions and higher competition from Asia for US LNG. A
further decline in storage levels throughout the month exacerbated supply risks in the region.
According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels fell to 28.1% as of the end of
March, down from 30% the previous month, a 1.9-percentage-point decrease m-o-m. Prices were
up by 35.3%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $14.49 per MMBtu for March 2026. There
is a change of 28% from last month and 15.5% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU. Further, as per notification dated 31st March 2026, the APM gas
price has been raised to US$ 7.00 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling
was further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification

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