Page 44 - Policy Economic Report -August 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: Non-DoC liquids production in 2026, mb/d

Non-OPEC liquids production 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026
28.73 28.98 29.23 28.91
Americas 28.75 28.69 22.61 22.65 22.75 22.60
3.52 3.46 3.58 3.55
of which US 22.57 22.37 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.38
32.61 32.82 33.19 32.83
Europe 3.64 3.62 4.65 4.56 4.58 4.62
0.80 0.80 0.81 0.81
Asia Pacific 0.39 0.38 1.61 1.61 1.63 1.62
8.54 8.65 8.82 8.63
Total OECD 32.77 32.70 1.62 1.63 1.65 1.63
2.28 2.27 2.27 2.28
China 4.64 4.67 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
India 0.82 0.81 19.96 19.98 20.22 20.03
52.57 52.80 53.41 52.86
Other Asia 1.64 1.62 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59

Latin America 8.27 8.51 55.16 55.39 56.00 55.45

Middle East 1.42 1.61

Africa 2.25 2.29

Other Eurasia 0.36 0.36

Other Europe 0.09 0.10

Total Non-OECD 19.49 19.96

Total Non-DoC production 52.27 52.66

Processing gains 2.57 2.59

Total Non-DoC liquids

production 54.84 55.25

Source: OPEC monthly report, August 2026

• From the above table, it can be inferred, that the total non-DoC liquids production is expected to
reach 55.45 mb/d by 2026.

• The non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquid production countries not participating in the Declaration
of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026.

Oil demand situation

• Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, following a slight downward revision
from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to slightly decline by about 40 tb/d, while the
non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d.

• Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.2 mb/d, y-o-y, following an upward revision
from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.3 mb/d, while the non-OECD
is forecast to grow by about 1.8 mb/d.

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