Page 49 - Policy Economic Report -August 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review
• Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $2.89 per million British thermal

units (MMBtu) in July 2026. Henry Hub’s natural gas prices declined in July by 8.3%, m-o-m. Prices
were pressured by strong production and healthy storage levels amid mixed demand. According to
data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), average weekly underground storage rose
by 8.4%, m-o-m. However, regionally, strong power demand and heatwaves in parts of the US partially
offset losses. Prices were down by ~9.7%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $18.06 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price increased by 19.1%, m-
o-m, in July. Prices rose on the back of stronger LNG competition from Asia, weather-related demand
and market sensitivity to global shipping developments. Heatwaves across South Korea and Northeast
China helped preserve Asia’s price advantage for flexible US LNG. Moreover, geopolitical risk
premiums remained elevated amid supply constraints from the Middle East. However, higher
European storage levels partially mitigated price increases. According to data from Gas Infrastructure
Europe, EU gas storage rose to 56.7% in July, up from 48.9% in June. Prices were up by 55.4%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $11.8 per MMBtu for July 2026. There is a
change of 0.1% from last month and -0.9% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or ceiling
price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will now be
indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price of basket of
crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.
The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per notification dated 31st
March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU, up from US$ 6.50 per
MMBTU. Further, as per notification dated 31st March 2026, the APM gas price has been raised to US$
7.00 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas price
ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$ 12.12/MMBTU on
Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As per notification dated
30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period 1st October, 2023 – 31st
March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis. Prices were
further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was notified as US$9.87/MMBTU
on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March 2024. Accordingly, for the
period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling was further revised as
US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 30th September
2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the
period 1st April, 2025 – 30th September, 2025 was notified as US$10.04/MMBTU on Gross Calorific

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