Page 45 - Policy Economic Report -August 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 5: World Oil demand, mb/d Growth %
2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026

Total OECD 45.95 45.73 45.2 46.47 46.25 45.91 0.04 -0.09

~ of which US 20.74 20.8 20.91 21.3 20.85 20.96 0.23 1.06

Total Non-OECD 59.21 60.26 57.91 59.72 61.4 59.82 0.61 1.03

~ of which India 5.65 5.85 5.4 5.53 6.08 5.71 0.06 1.06

~ of which China 16.88 17.24 16.2 17.16 17.28 16.97 0.09 0.53

Total world 105.16 105.98 103.11 106.18 107.66 105.74 0.05 0.55

Source: OPEC monthly report, August 2026

Global petroleum product prices
USGC refining margins against WTI strengthened significantly in July, reaching their highest level since
October 2022. The increase was driven primarily by diesel, followed by jet/kerosene and gasoline, as
robust market fundamentals and tight global middle distillate balances supported crack spreads. Renewed
concerns over disruptions to product flows from the Middle East, strong export demand for diesel and
low domestic stocks further reinforced refining economics, despite high refinery utilization. Gasoline also
benefited from resilient seasonal demand and relatively low inventories, with gains accelerating towards
the end of the month. Strong light distillate cracks, particularly naphtha, further supported refining
margins.

According to preliminary data, US refinery intake increased by 139 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 17.42 mb/d in
July. The USGC refining margin against WTI averaged $45.70/b, up $16.35/b, m-o-m, and $31.07/b, y-o-y.

Rotterdam refinery margins against Brent increased sharply in July, recording the largest monthly gain
among the three major trading hubs. The rally was led by middle distillates, with diesel crack spreads
reaching high levels amid declining inventories, continued disruptions to refining capacity in Eastern
Europe, diesel export restrictions, and uncertainty surrounding product flows through the Strait of
Hormuz. Strong seasonal gasoline demand, relatively tight regional balances and steady exports to West
Africa and the Mediterranean provided additional support. Lower feedstock costs added further upside.

According to preliminary data, refinery intake in Europe recovered as maintenance programmes were
completed, increasing by 319 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 10.05 mb/d in July. Rotterdam refining margins
against Brent averaged $42.13/b, up $17.88/b, m-o-m, and $29.52/b higher, y-o-y.

Singapore refining margins against Oman also strengthened in July, although gains remained more
moderate than in the Atlantic Basin. Strong diesel, jet fuel and naphtha crack spreads were supported by
tighter global middle-distillate balances, uncertainty over Middle Eastern exports and constrained

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