Page 27 - Policy Economic Report - December 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d

2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %
46.55 46.49 45.96 0.12 0.26
Total OECD 45.84 45.17 45.63 21.14 21.02 20.80 0.23 1.07
58.94 60.08 59.17 1.18 2.02
~ of which US 20.58 20.42 20.63 5.35 5.89 5.66 0.10 1.98
17.06 17.06 16.87 0.21 1.32
Total Non-OECD 58.00 59.10 58.58 105.49 106.57 105.14 1.30 1.25
~ of which India 5.55 5.70 5.68
~ of which China 16.65 16.86 16.47

Total world 103.84 104.26 104.21

Source - OPEC monthly report, December 2025

Global petroleum product prices

US Gulf Coast (USGC) refining margins against WTI increased to reach the highest level registered since
February 2024, with strength manifesting across the entire barrel except for high-sulphur fuel oil. Gasoil
was the top performer, registering a notable m-o-m crack spread increase, while solid jet/kerosene,
gasoline and naphtha gains further contributed to stronger refining economics in November. Geopolitical
product supply concerns, particularly regarding middle distillates and low product inventories relative to
historic averages, continued to support bullish sentiment in product markets. Increased mobility around
the Thanksgiving holiday season in the US likely provided additional support. Going forward, product
balances are expected to expand further on elevated refinery runs, which could pressure US refining
margins. However, the upside potential of heating fuel demand and expectations of an uptick around the
year-end holiday season could offset some of the supply-side and seasonal pressures.

According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the USGC increased by 730 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 16.61
mb/d in November. USGC margins against WTI averaged $22.18/b, up by $3.72, m-o-m, and up by $7.70,
y-o-y.

Rotterdam refinery margins against Brent surged, showing the largest m-o-m increase relative to the
USGC and Singapore and reaching a 27-month high. Concerns over declining gasoil/diesel availability
against a backdrop of geopolitical supply factors supported gasoil prices over the month despite higher
refinery output. Total product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp showed a 1.3% increase, m-o-m,
while they were 5.4% lower, y-o-y, according to Global S&P data as of 27 November 2025. However, the
impact of the sustained geopolitical factors in Europe and a decline in Russian products continued to
create uncertainty regarding product supplies, exerting upward pressure on product crack spreads and
margins. According to preliminary data, refinery runs in November increased by 240 tb/d to an average of
9.60 mb/d in EU-14, plus Norway and the UK. Refinery margins against Brent in Europe averaged $20.91/b
in November, which was $7.18 higher, m-o-m, and $13.21 higher, y-o-y.

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