Page 31 - Policy Economic Report - December 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

• Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $3.79 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in November 2025. Henry Hub's natural gas prices rose for a third consecutive
month, increasing by 18.8%, m-o-m, in November. Prices continued to advance, supported by a
combination of the shift into the US heating season and higher LNG demand, particularly from the
EU, as it looks to replenish its inventories. However, reports of higher storage levels limited gains.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), average weekly natural
gas storage increased by 4.0%, m-o-m, in November. Prices were up by ~78%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $10.42 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) declined for a fourth
consecutive month in November, falling by 4.3%, m-o-m. A decline in gas storage levels lifted
prices in the period amid seasonal heating demand. According to data from Gas Infrastructure
Europe, EU storage levels fell to 75.4% as of the end of November, down from 82.8% the previous
month, representing a 7.4 percentage point decrease. However, ongoing LNG supply offset
pressure from supply risk concerns. Prices were down by 25.2%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $11.02 per MMBtu for November 2025.
There is a change of -0.7% from last month and -14.0% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling was
further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated
30th September 2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas price ceiling was further
revised for the period 1st April, 2025 – 30th September, 2025 was notified as US$10.04/MMBTU

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