Page 12 - Policy & Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
ROEILPO&RGTAS MARKET

• India: India is expected to remain among the world's fastest-growing major economies, with
growth projected at 6.4 per cent in 2026, supported by resilient private consumption, robust
services activity, and strong domestic demand.

• Malaysia: Growth is projected at 4.7 per cent in 2026, benefiting from continued investment in
data centers, expanding semiconductor production, and stronger demand associated with the
global artificial intelligence and digital technology cycle.

• Thailand: Growth is projected at 1.9 per cent in 2026, revised upward by 0.4 percentage point,
supported by emergency fiscal measures, technology-related exports, and increased private
investment.

• Vietnam: Growth is projected at 7.5 per cent in 2026, also revised upward by 0.4 percentage
point, reflecting strong technology exports, expanding manufacturing activity, and resilient
domestic demand.

Global Inflation Trends

Global inflationary pressures remained elevated across major economies despite some moderation in
commodity prices earlier in the year. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global headline
inflation is projected to increase from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026, before easing to 3.9
per cent in 2027, indicating that the global disinflation process has temporarily stalled. The renewed
escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has pushed up crude oil prices, transportation costs
and shipping insurance premiums, resulting in higher production costs and renewed inflationary pressures
across both advanced and emerging economies. The Asian Development Bank (ADB)similarly notes that
higher fuel prices, transportation bottlenecks and supply-chain disruptions are increasingly feeding into
food prices, manufacturing costs and core inflation across Developing Asia and the Pacific, demonstrating
the continued transmission of energy price shocks through the global economy.

Figure 2: Consumer price inflation, annual change (%)

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Page | 11

July 2026