Page 40 - Policy & Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
ROEILPO&RGTAS MARKET

Indian Basket Crude oil price

Figure 19: Indian crude oil basket price in $ per bbl

120
115
110
105
100

95
90
85
80
75
70
65

Source: PPAC

• Indian crude basket price averaged $82.04 per barrel in July 2026, down by 6.6% on Month
on Month (M-o-M) and up by 15.6% on a year on year (Y-o-Y) basis, respectively.

Oil production situation

• Non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquids production from countries not participating in the
Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged
from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to
be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina.

• In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged
from last month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Brazil, Canada, and
Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries
participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.8
mb/d in 2026. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average
about 8.9 mb/d. In June, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased
by about 3 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 36.28 mb/d, according to available secondary
sources.
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