Page 42 - Policy & Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
ROEILPO&RGTAS MARKET

• Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 1.9 mb/d, y-o-y, following an upward
revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.3 mb/d, while
the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.7 mb/d.

Table 5: World Oil demand, mb/d 2026 Growth %
2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26

Total OECD 45.95 45.72 45.44 46.51 46.28 45.99 0.04 0.09

~ of which US 20.74 20.80 20.91 21.30 20.85 20.96 0.23 1.06

Total Non-OECD 59.21 60.26 58.23 59.86 61.43 59.95 0.74 1.25

~ of which India 5.65 5.85 5.49 5.54 6.08 5.74 0.09 1.59

~ of which China 16.88 17.24 16.30 17.18 17.29 17.00 0.12 0.71

Total world 105.16 105.98 103.67 106.37 107.72 105.94 0.78 0.74

Source: OPEC monthly report, July 2026

Global petroleum product prices

USGC refining margins against WTI dropped for the third consecutive month in June, yet
continued to retain most of the robust gains attained in March. This monthly drop was attributed
to refinery operational ramp-ups and stronger product output, as offline capacities reached
seasonal lows following an intense maintenance season. In terms of products, this weakness
materialized in the middle and top sections of the barrel, with jet/kerosene representing its
primary source. By the end of June, total jet/kerosene inventories rose nearly 7%, m-o-m, and
were 6% higher, y-o-y. Similarly, USGC gasoil inventories registered a stock build in June, albeit
to a lesser extent than jet/kerosene. Meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventory declines
stabilized on the back of restored refinery output rates.

Additionally, although gasoline retail prices declined in June, they remain higher compared to the
previous year, which could have weighed on gasoline demand in the US. Nonetheless, gasoline
markets are expected to strengthen somewhat in the near term, particularly if retail prices
decline in July. According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the USGC increased by 340 tb/d,
m-o-m, to average 17.28 mb/d in June. USGC margins against WTI averaged $29.35/b, down
$5.83, m-o-m, but up $17.53, y-o-y.

Rotterdam refinery margins against Brent moved lower, losing some of the gains attained in the
previous month, pressured by higher product availability as refiners in Europe increased their
processing rates in June. According to S&P Global data published on 2 July, total Amsterdam-
Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil product stocks increased 2.0%, m-o-m. Despite this monthly

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