Page 43 - Policy & Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
ROEILPO&RGTAS MARKET

increase, total ARA oil product stocks were 16.2% lower in June, y-o-y, with jet fuel and fuel oil
accounting for most of this decrease. According to preliminary data, June refinery runs in EU-14,
Norway and the UK increased by 240 tb/d to average 9.59 mb/d. Refinery margins against Brent
in Europe averaged $24.25/b in June, which was $2.51 lower, m-o-m, and $15.80 higher, y-o-y.

Singapore's refining margins against Oman rose amid easing geopolitical tensions, an uptick in
crude arrivals, and lower crude prices. Product markets, however, weakened in Southeast Asia
over June, with all key product crack spreads showing m-o-m declines, with the largest registered
in naphtha and jet/kerosene. This reflects increases in crude oil arrivals into the region. Higher
inflows of barrels outside the Middle East supported refinery processing rates in the region.
Additionally, recent data indicates a resumption of outflows from the Middle East, which likely
further contributed to stronger refinery runs and higher product output in Southeast Asia.

According to preliminary data, the combined June refinery intake for Japan, China, India,
Singapore and South Korea increased by 690 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 24.48 mb/d. Refinery
margins against Oman averaged $10.37/b, which was $1.04 higher, m-o-m, and $5.44 higher, y-
o-y.

Figure 20: Refining Margins ($/bbl)

Source: Argus and OPEC

The Southeast Asia 92 gasoline crack spread against Dubai eased following two consecutive
months of gains, as a recovery in regional processing rates widened the regional gasoline balance.
Nevertheless, gasoline performed relatively better compared to all other key products in
Southeast Asia, registering the smallest downturn across the barrel in June. The margin averaged
$27.73/b in June, down $0.68/b, m-o-m, and up $16.85/b, y-o-y.

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