Page 46 - Policy & Economic Report - July 2025

July 2026 POLICY AND ECONOMIC
ROEILPO&RGTAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

• Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $3.15 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in June 2026. Henry Hub natural gas prices increased by 7.1%, m-o-m, in June.
Prices rose on the back of stronger summer cooling demand and ongoing LNG-related support.
Gains were limited by an ongoing buildup in US inventories amid the injection season. According
to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), average weekly underground
storage rose by 17.2%, m-o-m, in June, remaining well within the five-year historical average.
Prices were up by 4.3%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $15.17 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price decreased by 6.2%,
m-o-m, in June. A decline in the geopolitical risk premium, coupled with improved LNG supply
conditions, weighed on the European benchmark. Moreover, EU gas storage levels continued to
improve during the refill season. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage was around
48.9% full by the end of June, up from 40.1% at the end of May, an 8.8 percentage point increase,
m-o-m, but still below normal seasonal levels. Prices were up by 22.6%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $12.83 per MMBtu for June 2026. There is
a change of -0.4% from last month and 5.4% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU. Further, as per notification dated 31st March 2026, the APM gas
price has been raised to US$ 7.00 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling
was further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification
dated 30th September 2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas price ceiling

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