Page 50 - Policy Economic Report - September 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review
• Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $2.78 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in August 2026. Henry Hub’s natural gas prices declined in August after increasing
for two consecutive months. Strong US gas production coupled with ample storage levels dragged
prices down. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, US average
weekly underground storage increased by 3.8%, m-o-m. Higher US LNG exports limited the
downward pressure amid elevated global LNG benchmarks. Prices were down by ~4.5%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $21.11 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) experienced a second
monthly gain in August, up by 16.9%, m-o-m. Relatively low storage levels in the region, increased
international competition for LNG, and a higher geopolitical risk premium continued to be
supportive of prices. Nonetheless, the increase in storage injections limited the price increases.
According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, storage levels rose to 65.1% as of the end of
August, up from 56.7% the previous month. Prices were up by 89.3%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $13.94 per MMBtu for August 2026. There
is a change of 0.6% from last month and 18.2% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU. Further, as per notification dated 31st March 2026, the APM gas
price has been raised to US$ 7.00 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling
was further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification
dated 30th September 2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas price ceiling
was further revised for the period 1st April, 2025 – 30th September, 2025 was notified as
US$10.04/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period

September 2026 Page | 49