Page 11 - Policy Economic Report - September 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

rapid expansion of AI and data-centre capacity is also creating additional demand for electricity, water
and other critical resources, increasing the importance of infrastructure resilience. Continued changes in
trade policies, including tariffs and export restrictions, are adding another layer of uncertainty and may
contribute to supply disruptions. The OECD estimates that new US bilateral tariff rates introduced from
July have increased the average US effective tariff rate by around 1 percentage point.

Despite these challenges, the underlying global expansion remains relatively robust. Global GDP growth
is projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with stronger price pressures, weaker real income growth
and higher interest rates expected to moderate activity in the near term. At the same time, continued AI-
related investment and an assumed easing of energy prices in line with futures markets are expected to
support a strengthening of activity through 2027. The United States is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2026
and 2.1% in 2027, while euro-area growth is projected at 1.0% in both years. China's growth is expected
to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.

The global economic outlook entering the final quarter of 2026 is characterised by a combination of
moderated but resilient growth and heightened supply-side risks. The Middle East conflict and associated
energy disruptions have slowed global activity, but their impact has so far been partly offset by strong AI-
related investment, resilient domestic demand, additional energy supplies and government support
measures. The trajectory of energy prices remains the principal near-term uncertainty, while trade-policy
changes, elevated long-term interest rates and geopolitical risks add to the downside risks. At the same
time, continued technological investment, particularly in AI, provides an important source of investment,
production and trade growth. The balance between these opposing forces will be critical in determining
the pace and durability of global growth through 2026–27.

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