Page 14 - Policy Economic Report - September 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Growth in Indonesia is expected to remain relatively stable at 5.2% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027, supported
by improved terms of trade and investment. Mexico is projected to recover to 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in
2027, supported by technology-related production and the lagged effects of lower policy rates. Monetary-
policy easing is also expected to support activity in several other emerging economies, including Brazil and
Türkiye, as inflationary pressures moderate.

Global Inflation Trends

Global inflationary pressures have begun to rise again after broadly stabilising through the middle of 2026.
According to the OECD Interim Economic Outlook, headline inflation remained broadly stable in June and
July, following an increase of around 1 percentage point in the advanced economies and 0.4 percentage
point in emerging-market economies between February and May. However, inflation increased again in
August across a number of G20 economies, largely reflecting renewed increases in commodity prices.
More than half of G20 economies currently have inflation above their respective central-bank targets.

The recent increase in inflation has so far been driven predominantly by higher energy prices rather than
a broad-based acceleration in underlying price pressures. Daily measures of online retail prices indicate
that price increases between mid-July and mid-September were primarily associated with the renewed
rise in energy prices across both advanced and emerging-market economies. In contrast, there was limited
evidence of a significant increase in food-price inflation during this period. Nominal wage growth has also
remained broadly stable in most economies since the first quarter of 2026, suggesting that second-round
effects on underlying inflation remain relatively contained.

Figure 3: Inflation has recently picked up again

Source: OECD Consumer Price database; Eurostat; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; national sources;
State Street PriceStats; and OECD calculations.

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