Page 12 - Policy Economic Report - September 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC
OIL & GAS MARKET

Figure 2: Change in real GDP Growth (%)

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

Growth Forecast - Advanced Economies

Growth across the major advanced economies is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, although the
outlook varies considerably across individual economies. According to the OECD Interim Economic
Outlook, September 2026, the impact of the recent energy-market shock is expected to be partly
cushioned by government support measures in several economies. At the same time, higher energy costs,
tighter monetary policy and weaker household purchasing power are expected to weigh on activity
towards the end of 2026 and into 2027. Continued investment related to artificial intelligence (AI) remains
an important source of growth in several advanced economies.

The United States is projected to remain one of the strongest-performing advanced economies, with GDP
growth estimated at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Strong underlying economic momentum and
continued expansion of AI-related investment are expected to support activity. However, consumer
spending is likely to moderate as higher prices reduce purchasing power, labour-force growth softens and
household savings buffers are depleted. The latest S&P Global indicators also point to a strong near-term
expansion in US economic activity, reinforcing the country's relatively strong position among advanced
economies.

Growth in the euro area is expected to remain moderate at 1.0% in both 2026 and 2027. The recent rise
in energy prices and higher policy rates are expected to weigh on economic activity in the near term.
However, these effects are expected to diminish as energy prices ease, while increased defence spending
is likely to provide additional support to demand and investment. Recent business activity indicators
suggest that the euro area has shown greater resilience than previously anticipated, with the region
recording its strongest expansion in business activity since April 2023.

The United Kingdom is projected to grow by 1.1% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, with newly announced
government support measures expected to provide some support to household consumption. However,

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