BP Energy Outlook 2022


BP Energy Outlook 2022

Continuing the tradition, the Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry (FIPI) joined with BP India to organize BP Energy Outlook – 2022 edition on 19 July 2022 at The Imperial, Janpath, New Delhi. This Outlook was unveiled in a physical gathering and was attended by Shri Hardeep Singh Puri, Hon'ble Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Housing & Urban Affairs; Shri Rameswar Teli, Hon'ble Minister of State in the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Ministry of Labour & Employment; Shri Pankaj Jain, Secretary, MoP&NG; Mr Spencer Dale, Group Chief Economist, BP Plc; Shri S. M. Vaidya, Chairman, FIPI & Chairman, IndianOil; Shri Sashi Mukundan, President, bp India and Senior Vice President, bp Group and CXOs of major oil and gas companies in the country.

The program started with welcoming the esteemed dignitaries and presenting them with saplings as a token of appreciation.

Mr Spencer Dale, Group Chief Economist, BP Plc., made a detailed presentation on the BP Energy Outlook 2022. At the outset, he informed the participants that BP's Energy Outlook 2022 is focused on three main scenarios to explore the energy transition:  Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum to explore the range of possible pathways for the global energy system to 2050. The scenarios included in Energy Outlook 2022 were largely prepared before the outbreak of the military action (Ukraine War) and do not include any analysis of its possible implications for economic growth and global energy markets.

He also added that the scenarios are based on existing and developing technologies and do not consider the possibility of emerging entirely new or unknown technologies. Government ambitions globally to tackle climate change have increased markedly and key elements of the low-carbon energy system critical for the world to transition successfully to Net Zero – installation of new wind and solar power capacity; sales of electric vehicles; announcements of blue and green hydrogen and CCUS projects – have all expanded rapidly. As a result, there are signs of a New Momentum in tackling climate change.

The presentation also brought out that although there is considerable uncertainty, some features of the energy transition are common across all the main scenarios in this year's Outlook and may guide how the energy system may change over the next few decades. The importance of the world making a decisive shift towards a net-zero future has never been clearer. The opportunities and risks associated with that transition are significant and this year's Energy Outlook will be useful to everyone trying to navigate this uncertain future and accelerate the transition to Net Zero.

While talking about the Insights from the three scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum scenarios from the Indian perspective, he emphasized that we can't understand global energy without understanding what's happening in India. He further informed that under all scenarios, there is a strong growth in primary energy in India led by renewables and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. This growth is underpinned by increasing population, industrialization and prosperity and some of the noteworthy points are as follows:

  1. Under all three scenarios, India's primary energy consumption will more than double by 2050

  2. Renewable energy grows strongly in all the scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Zero

  3. Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that shows growth in levels throughout 2050 in all scenarios

  4. Primary energy grows strongly in all three scenarios, more than doubling between 2019-2050. The average growth per year is between 2.5%-2.7%.

  5. As result of this strong growth, India accounts for around 13%-14% of the global primary energy consumption in 2050 across all scenarios, up from around 7% in 2019

  6. The share of coal in total primary energy has been broadly stable around 2019 levels (45%) over the past 40 years. However, coal's share declines in all scenarios, reaching between 6% and 34% by 2050.

  7. Renewable energy growth is strong in the three scenarios, averaging between 4%-6% p.a. As a result, renewable energy will become the largest primary energy source in 2050 in Net Zero  Accelerated and the second largest in Net Zero and New Momentum (after coal). Renewable energy represents between 31% and 66% of total primary energy in 2050.

  8. There is also a significant process of electrification. Power generation more than triple in all scenarios by 2050, with solar and wind power accounting for 55% to 95% of that growth.

  9. The share of natural gas in total primary energy grows in all scenarios, increasing from 5% in 2019 to 12% in 2050 in New Momentum, supported by coal-to-gas switching in power, industry and heavy road transport demand. In Accelerated and Net Zero, the gas share in primary energy is between 8% and 10%.

  10. Solar and wind installed capacity by 2050 reach 1.2- 2.1 TW and  0.2- 1.1 TW, respectively. 

  11. Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In New Momentum, emissions will increase by around 96% in 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, emissions decrease by 26% and 71%, respectively.

Mr Dale's presentation triggered a very fruitful Q&A session and brought some deep insights into the global and Indian energy sectors.

Hon'ble Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas & Housing and Urban Affairs, in his address, complimented Mr. Dale for delivering a very insightful presentation and bringing out the analysis of humanity's challenges in the context of energy.

He added that we can't look at energy without considering its sustainability and climate change dimensions. We were already addressing a very challenging international economic environment determined by the Pandemic's challenges, followed by what happened on 24 February '22 (Ukraine War). This has created a new sense of urgency for us to do things slightly faster than what would have happened if events like the Pandemic and 24 February '22 (Ukraine War) had not happened.  Some of them are:

  • Biofuel blending: India has advanced blending target of 20% ethanol in petrol by five years to 2025-26

  • Compressed biogas: The government is proactively working towards increasing the production of CBG under the SATAT (Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation) initiative, which envisages a target production of 15 million Metric Ton (MMT) of CBG by 2023-24, from 5000 Plants.

  • Green hydrogen: India is planning to produce 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030.

One clear thing that distinguishes India from the rest of the world is that India will continue to be the critical driver of demand. Our energy consumption is about one-third of the global average, which is bound to increase further with the increasing population, industrialization and prosperity of the country's people. He concluded his speech by stating that it would be a very high price if the world goes back to individual countries taking decisions for themselves and losing the public good at the international level.

On the sidelines of Outlook 2022, the Hon'ble Minister also discussed the future of the energy sector & India's energy scenario. He also discussed the global energy scenario & the future of green & renewable energy with Chief Economist of bp Spencer Dale.

Hon'ble Minister of State in the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Ministry of Labour & Employment, Shri Rameswar Teli in his speech stated that the Govt. has taken several initiatives to ease business and to create a conducive ecosystem for the sector's growth and also to bring foreign investment into the industry. He added that under the able leadership of the Hon'ble Prime Minister, India has made remarkable achievements and has now emerged as a global player.

An expanding economy, population, urbanization and industrialization will result in India's energy needs growing more than any other country over the next decade and India is committed to providing its citizens access to a clean, affordable, sustainable energy supply. To reduce import dependency, the country is focusing on increased domestic production of oil and gas, and in this regard, an international roadshow in London has been organized to expedite & enhancing E&P activities on the domestic front.

He concluded his speech by thanking FIPI & BP for together bringing the outlook event and mentioned that the BP outlook has served as a guiding light for the entire industry in formulating strategies and this will help the oil and gas companies to navigate through the potential uncertainties surrounding energy transition in the future.

Mr Sashi Mukundan, President, BP India and Senior Vice President, BP group, delivering his vote of thanks, highlighted the importance of this year's BP energy outlook in the backdrop of the energy transition the world is undergoing. He also added that BP is encouraged by the progressive policies announced by the government to maximize production from all forms of energy, enhance India's energy security and provide affordable and reliable energy to millions of Indians in a sustainable manner.