Mr Spencer Dale, Group Chief Economist, BP Plc., made a detailed presentation on the BP Energy Outlook 2023. He apprised the participants that BP’s Energy Outlook 2023 explores the key trends and uncertainties associating with energy transition. He talked about the focus of the energy outlook primarily depends on three main scenarios to explore the energy transition:  Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. He mentioned that the scenarios are based on the existing technologies and do not consider the impact of new or unknown technologies. He further added that the scenarios in this year’s Outlook have been updated to consider two major developments viz, the Russia-Ukraine war and the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US.

He further added that with the urgent need of climate change, the global oil and gas industry will continue to invest in cleaner forms of energy such as wind, solar, green hydrogen, biofuels etc in order to ensure a smooth energy transition process. As a result, there are signs of a New Momentum in tackling climate change.

The presentation talked about the three dimensions of the energy system- security, affordability, and sustainability; that make up the energy trilemma. He said that the events of the past year have highlighted the complexity and interconnectedness of the global energy system and the need to address all three dimensions of the energy trilemma. The opportunities and risks associated with the transition are significant and this year's Energy Outlook will be useful to everyone trying to navigate this uncertain future and accelerate the transition to Net Zero.

While giving the India’s perspective on energy transition, Mr. Dale emphasized there is a strong growth in primary energy in India led by renewables and, to a lesser extent, natural gas and nuclear. This growth is underpinned by increasing population, industrialization, and prosperity. He highlighted the following broad points: -

1. Under all three scenarios, India's primary energy consumption will more than double by 2050


2. Renewable energy grows strongly in all the scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Zero


3. Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that shows growth in levels throughout 2050 in all scenarios


4. Primary energy grows strongly in all three scenarios, more than doubling between 2019-2050. Average growth per year is between 2.4% and 2.6%.


5. As result of this strong growth, India accounts for around 14% of the global primary energy consumption in 2050 across all scenarios, up from around 7% in 2019.


6. The share of coal in total primary energy has been broadly stable around 2019 levels (45%) over the past 40 years. However, coal’s share declines in all scenarios, reaching between 6% and 33% by 2050.


7. The share of natural gas in total primary energy grows in all scenarios, increasing from 5% in 2019 to 7-11% in 2050, supported by industry and heavy road transport demand.


8. Renewable energy grows strongly in all scenarios, at an average of 4-6% a year. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero, and the largest together with coal in New Momentum. 


9. Electricity generation in 2050 is around four times of that in 2019 in New Momentum and Accelerated, and five times in Net Zero, with solar and wind power accounting for 57% to 95% of that growth.


10. Solar and wind installed capacities in 2050 reach 1.3-2.2 TW and 0.3-1.2TW, respectively, depending on the scenarios.


11. Hydrogen demand grows by a factor of four in New Momentum up to a twelvefold increase in Net Zero. In 2050 green hydrogen represents 47% of total production in New Momentum and 80% in Net Zero.


12. . Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In New Momentum, emissions increase by around 85% in 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, emissions decrease by 30% and 77%, respectively.

Hon'ble Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas & Housing and Urban Affairs, Shri Hardeep Singh Puri in his address, complimented Mr Spencer Dale for his detailed presentation. He highlighted that while accurate predictions cannot be made about the future scenarios due to many variables and disruptions, the BP outlook has served as a guiding light for the entire industry in formulating strategies. He said that the outlook will help the oil and gas companies to navigate through the potential uncertainties surrounding energy transition. He shared his vision on the changing energy scenario, the effects global trends have on energy security in India and the way forward.

Hon'ble Minister of State in the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Ministry of Labour & Employment, Shri Rameswar Teli in his speech stated that the rising industrialisation and urbanisation have led to an increase in the demand for energy in India. He mentioned that at the recently concluded India Energy Week held in Bengaluru, the Hon’ble Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi said that the country's energy strategy is being developed around four verticals and the government is rapidly working in the four directions- namely- Increasing domestic exploration and production; diversifying the supply; expanding fuels like biofuel, ethanol, compressed biogas, and solar; and de-carbonization via electric vehicles and hydrogen. He concluded that Indian energy sector’s commitment towards a low carbon economy remains steadfast.

Mr Sashi Mukundan, President, BP India and Senior Vice President, BP group, delivering his vote of thanks, highlighted the importance of this year's BP energy outlook in the backdrop of the energy transition and the recent global developments the world is undergoing. He also added that BP is encouraged by the progressive policies announced by the government to maximize production from all forms of energy, enhance India's energy security and provide affordable and reliable energy to millions of Indians in a sustainable manner.