The Outlook was unveiled in a physical gathering and was attended by Shri Pankaj Jain, Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoP&NG); Shri Arun Kumar Singh, Chairman, FIPI & Chairman & CEO, ONGC; Shri S M Vaidya, Co-Chairman, FIPI & Chairman, IOCL; Mr Spencer Dale, Chief Economist, bp Plc; Shri Kartikeya Dube, Head of Country, bp India and Senior Vice President, Gas and Low Carbon for India and CXOs of major oil and gas companies in the country.

Mr Spencer Dale, Chief Economist, bp Plc., made a detailed presentation on the bp Energy Outlook 2024 and apprised the participants that 2024 Outlook explores the key trends and uncertainties surrounding the energy transition. Further, he apprised that this year’s Energy Outlook is focused on two main scenarios: Current Trajectory and Net Zero and both the scenarios do not consider the possible impact of entirely new or unknown technologies.

• Current Trajectory is designed to capture the broad pathway along which the global energy system is currently travelling.


• Net Zero explores how different elements of the energy system might change in order to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions.

Further, he mentioned that the world is in an ‘energy addition’ phase of the energy transition in which it is consuming increasing amounts of both low carbon energy and fossil fuels. He then highlighted that the challenge is to move, for the first time in history, from the current energy addition phase of energy transition to an ‘energy substitution’ phase, in which low carbon energy increases sufficiently quickly to more than match the increase in global energy demand, allowing the consumption of fossil fuels, and with that carbon emissions, to decline.

While talking about the India’s energy sector, he laid emphasis on the fact that in both the scenarios, primary energy growth is led by renewables. This growth is underpinned by increasing population, industrialization and prosperity. Some of the key takeaways are as follows:

1. India’s primary energy consumption grows by 90% and 21% by 2050 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively.


2. Renewable energy grows strongly in both scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Net Zero.


3. Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that grows to 2050 in both scenarios.           


4. Primary energy grows strongly in both scenarios, by 90% and 21% in 2022-50 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero respectively (2.3% and 0.7% CAGR respectively).


5. As result of this strong growth, India accounts for around 12% of the global primary energy consumption in 2050 across both scenarios, up from around 7% in 2022.


6. The share of coal in total primary energy modestly declines in Current Trajectory, down to 44% by 2050 from 48% in 2022. However, it declines sharply in Net Zero to less than 13% by 2050.


7. India’s natural gas production grows in Current Trajectory to 36 BCM by 2050, up from 30 BCM in 2022. It decreases to 8 BCM by 2050 in Net Zero.


8. The share of natural gas in primary energy grows in Current Trajectory from 5% in 2022 to 9% in 2050, driven by power, road transport and industry. Gas’s share of primary energy remains broadly flat at around 5% in Net Zero.


9. Renewables grow strongly in both scenarios, averaging 3-5% growth per year. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Net Zero, and second largest in Current Trajectory (after coal).


10. Solar and wind installed capacities in 2050 reach 1.2-2.7 TW and 0.4-1.5 TW, respectively, depending on the scenarios.


11. Electricity generation in 2050 is more than three times of that in 2022 in Current Trajectory, and more than four times in Net Zero, with solar and wind power accounting for 60-100% of that growth.


12. Hydrogen demand grows by a factor of two in Current Trajectory and up to an eightfold increase in Net Zero. In 2050, green hydrogen represents 37% of total hydrogen production in Current Trajectory and 89% in Net Zero.


13. Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In Current Trajectory emissions increase by around 73% in 2050. In Net Zero, emissions decrease by 81%.

Mr. Dale's presentation sparked a highly productive Q&A session and provided valuable insights into both the global and Indian energy sectors.

Shri Pankaj Jain, Secretary, MoP&NG, praised Mr. Dale for giving an excellent presentation and highlighting the most relevant scenarios for the Indian energy system. Further, he mentioned that the scenarios in this year’s Energy Outlook can be used to get insights about how the energy system may evolve over the next 25 years.

Mr. Kartikeya Dube, Head of Country, bp India and Senior Vice President, Gas and Low Carbon for India, in his vote of thanks, emphasized the significance of this year’s bp Energy Outlook in light of the energy transition and recent global developments. Further, he mentioned that bp is encouraged by the government’s forward-looking policies aimed at maximizing production across all energy sources, enhancing India’s energy security, and delivering affordable and reliable energy to millions of Indians in a sustainable way.